In order to understand trends in cycling during the pandemic (see other posts) needed to adjust for the normal seasonal shifts in cycling. Could find very little on this so have done an analysis of the data from the National Travel Survey. Have also looked at the London Cycle Hire numbers.
Graph shows how similar the seasonal changes are for data from the National Travel Survey and the data from London bike hires. This is weekday (Mon-Fri) data. Weekend data does not match quite so well, but is not bad. Other sources of data (TfL TLRN counts; DfT urban roads traffic flow) also show much the same relation.
There is a steady rise from around 65% average to a peak of 130% average in June or July. there is a slight fall to September, then a steep fall for the rest of the year to a minimum at Christmas of 40-50% average. At weekends there is less cycling overall, but more seasonal variation. Much the same pattern, a rise from Jan to June/July to a peak of 140% then a steep fall to a low of 40% at the end of December.
Lots of interesting features - small peaks at Easter, significant falls in August (everyone away on holiday?). Intriguing jump from late December to early January - maybe a lot of people resolve to exercise more in the New Year. Much more detail in a full account (guaranteed to cure insomnia) at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MX_6p-5mkxLX8o3JW66emtz5JgcrlzDt/view?usp=sharing
There is a steady rise from around 65% average to a peak of 130% average in June or July. there is a slight fall to September, then a steep fall for the rest of the year to a minimum at Christmas of 40-50% average. At weekends there is less cycling overall, but more seasonal variation. Much the same pattern, a rise from Jan to June/July to a peak of 140% then a steep fall to a low of 40% at the end of December.
Lots of interesting features - small peaks at Easter, significant falls in August (everyone away on holiday?). Intriguing jump from late December to early January - maybe a lot of people resolve to exercise more in the New Year. Much more detail in a full account (guaranteed to cure insomnia) at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MX_6p-5mkxLX8o3JW66emtz5JgcrlzDt/view?usp=sharing