Five cyclists died in collisions on London’s roads in 2019. This is much lower than the 2018 figure of 12. As shown in the diagram, it is half the average for the previous 5 years. Checking records back to 2002 shows this is the lowest figure over that period; it is probably the lowest figure ever.
A sample of 5 has a confidence interval from 1 to 11. This gives us cause to be cautious. However if we look at the trend it is much more convincing. The graph shows the trend since 2002.
The 2019 value looks like the continuation of a very real trend. The trend line estimate for 2019 would be 8, still the equal lowest value on record. The downward trend in fatalities is statistically very robust. Also remember that numbers cycling have increased substantially over this period, The trend shows lives lost falling steadily by 0.6 per year.
There are about 500,000 regular (several times a week) cyclists in London. So the risk of dying last year was 1:100,000. Is that a large risk? There are about 5 million people regularly walking about in London. Last year 71 were killed in road traffic collisions. This is a risk of 1:70,000. OK, last year had rather low cycle fatalities while the figure for pedestrians was higher than expected. But you can see that the risk of being a pedestrian is not much different from the risk of being a cyclist.
There is a clear message :
There are about 500,000 regular (several times a week) cyclists in London. So the risk of dying last year was 1:100,000. Is that a large risk? There are about 5 million people regularly walking about in London. Last year 71 were killed in road traffic collisions. This is a risk of 1:70,000. OK, last year had rather low cycle fatalities while the figure for pedestrians was higher than expected. But you can see that the risk of being a pedestrian is not much different from the risk of being a cyclist.
There is a clear message :
- The risk of being killed while cycling is very low
- This risk is falling steadily, year on year.